Accurate Demand Planning and Forecasting

Developing accurate forecasts, continually updating them, and measuring their accuracy against actual sales offers independent retailers the greatest opportunities today to maximize their return on inventory investment.

When retailers seek help with issues relating to inventory management, they are usually concerned about an increasing level of out-of-stocks, which are leading to lost sales and customer service complaints, or over-stocks, which are resulting in slow inventory turnover and a build up of dead inventory. In fact, out-of-stocks and over-stocks are actually the flip side of the same inventory management coin.

Any effective initiative to resolve these issues must address the core structural causes of these inventory management problems. Superior inventory management begins with timely, accurate, detailed demand forecasts.

It is critical to differentiate between demand planning and purchase planning. Demand planning is the sales plan from which inventory planning, purchase planning and replenishment parameters are built. It is impossible to plan inventory and purchasing activities or build replenishment parameters without a detailed forecast of what will be sold, how much will be sold, when it will be sold, the channels it will be sold through, and who the ultimate customers will be. And yet, all too frequently replenishment parameters are rolled over, existing purchasing patterns continue, and inventory is allowed to ebb and flow as if on auto- pilot. The result is out-of-stocks and over-stocks as demand changes.

Without highly reliable forecasts, retailers must attempt to strike a delicate balance between carrying too little or too much stock. Frequently, they feel compelled to protect themselves against out-of-stocks and back-orders by stocking layers of additional inventory in reserve, unnecessarily tying up valuable resources that could be used in more productive ways to serve customers and grow the business.

It is important that the planning process drills down to the lowest possible level so that every category, sub- category, style or SKU is reviewed not just for potential opportunities and current sales trends, but also for the potential negative impacts of increased competition, emerging technology, changes in promotional patterns and new product introductions. For distributors and wholesalers this may mean planning at the individual SKU level. Planning can be further refined by breaking key categories and items down by customer type, key customer, and even key customer by shipping location. Important sales trends, both positive and negative can be identified, and important historical events, such as unusual local weather, can be taken into account.

Once the historical sales data has been reviewed and adjusted, the data will frequently be averaged or smoothed to eliminate any remaining fluctuations in the sales pattern. Smoothing, however, can often lead to problems if not done carefully. For instance, using a three week moving average to smooth weekly historical sales may lead to out-of-stocks or over-stocks if sales are typically heavy at the beginning or end of each month. Utilizing monthly historical data rather than weekly data may seem like a reasonable way to simplify the planning process, but may in fact have the unintended consequence of smoothing historical sales in a way that may conceal meaningful sales patterns.

It is important to note that sales velocity is not the same as sales volume. For example, an item that generates 50 orders of 2 units each over a given period of time will have the same sales volume as an item which generates 2 orders of 50 units each, but the velocity of each item will be dramatically different. Clearly, the sales history of the item which generates 50 orders will lead to a forecast that will be more meaningful in the development of future inventory plans, purchasing needs and replenishment parameters than the sales history of the item which generates only 2 orders.

As the demand plan is being developed, however, unit plans must also be “dollar-ed out.” As management assesses the overall market environment and the strategic opportunities and risks for the company, they will likely establish a financial budget, critical for cash flow forecasting, from the “top down”, which will be stated in dollars. As managers develop and roll up their forecasts, they must be careful that their “bottom up” unit plan remains in line with the financial “top down” dollar plan, and be prepared to adjust the unit plans accordingly.

Frequently, “bottom up” unit plans will forecast a sales increase significantly greater than the company’s “top down” financial budget. The reason for this is that in the course of building a “bottom up” unit plan far more items or categories are likely to be planned up than planned down. The natural tendency is to plan sales increases, especially in organizations with multiple buyers who are evaluated on their ability to generate sales increases with their items, categories and departments. Clearly, every item, category or department is not going to generate an increase, and companies which discourage their buyers from forecasting sales decreases are building in potential inventory problems right from the very beginning of the process.

Forecasts Need To Be Continually Updated While demand planning and forecasting are generally thought of as a process that takes place at the beginning of each year or selling season, superior inventory management requires that forecasts remain dynamic and be continually updated to reflect the most current market conditions and sales trends. It does little good for a company to have taken the time to carefully forecast demand for the upcoming season or year, only to open the door to out-of-stocks or over-stocks by failing to update those forecasts on a continual basis. Static forecasts which have not been updated will invariably lead to faulty purchasing decisions.

Updating forecasts may be as simple as carefully monitoring the sales trend and updating the forward periods accordingly. In other cases there may be leading indicators that can be utilized to continually adjust the forecast. For those items or categories where customer orders are booked well in advance of actual ship dates, advance bookings may be able to be used as a leading indicator. In order for this to be an accurate indicator, however, prior year orders must be cross referenced between the period in which the order was booked, and the planned and actual ship date. Without a fairly sophisticated order management system to track this information, and very careful assessments of individual factors which may be impacting the timing of the placement of orders this year versus last year, utilizing advanced bookings to make significant adjustments to the forecast may by itself lead to variances between planned and actual sales, resulting in out-of-stocks or over-stocks.

A far more accurate leading indicator of sorts is, in fact, the demand forecast of a company’s customers. In fact, the closer any forecast is to the ultimate point of sale the more accurate and timely it will be.

The potential of collaborative forecasting is to finally fully rationalize the supply chain so that unnecessary inventories can be completely eliminated rather than inevitably building up with the company in the chain with the least economic leverage. In a supply chain where information is not shared, but, in fact, is closely held, it is inevitable that inventory risk will be pushed back by the companies with the greatest leverage onto the companies with the least. But the mere presence of excess, unnecessary inventory anywhere within the supply chain inflates costs for every member of the chain, and ultimately weakens the chain.

Conclusion The greatest challenge to finally achieving superior inventory management, and maximizing the return on inventory investment, lies in developing accurate forecasts. Much work has been done over the past ten to fifteen years to rationalize processes in the supply chain, and eliminate unnecessary inventory. This has led directly to truly astounding cost saving and productivity gains. But for all the gains that have been made on the supply side of the inventory equation, the greatest opportunity for additional gains today is on the demand side. Not only does superior inventory management begin with accurate demand planning and forecasting, but making the commitment to developing accurate forecasts, continually updating them, and measuring their accuracy against actual sales also offers independent retailers the greatest opportunities today to maximize their return on inventory investment.


Ted Hurlbut is a retail consultant, coach and speaker who helps independent retailers increase sales, profitability and cash flow by leveraging his deep expertise and proven retail know-how, Get his FREE report “The 16 Essential Elements of a WINNING Independent Retail Strategy” Visit: http://www.hurlbutassociates.com/get-the-16-essential-elements-of-a-winning-independent-retail-strategy/
Ted Hurlbut is a retail consultant, coach and speaker who helps independent retailers increase sales, profitability and cash flow by leveraging his deep expertise and proven retail know-how, Get his FREE report "The 16 Essential Elements of a WINNING Independent Retail Strategy"
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